Although international trade is not typically a hot topic for local governments, it was top of mind for delegates on the first day of the North Central Local Government Association (NCLGA) conference in Prince Rupert.
In the opening plenary session on May 13, Trish Mandewo, president of the Union of B.C. Municipalities (UBCM) and Gary MacIsaac, UBCM executive director, presented an analysis of the projected impact of U.S tariffs on Canada and B.C. conducted by Oxford Economics, a global economic research agency, on behalf of the provincial association.
"We recognize that talking about international trade is not something that is in local governments' alley," Mandewo said. "This is outside our alley, but we know that you want to support the federal government and the provincial government so that we can bring an all-of-Canada approach. So right now, local governments are making a voice at these tables, and we are strongly advocating that we will be included there."
In presenting the forecast, MacIsaac cautioned that the American president's proposed tariffs are a moving target and the data on which the analysis was based was what they knew at the time the study was commissioned, approximately six weeks ago.
He said what delegates should focus on is not the specific numbers, but the overall trends that indicate tariffs will have a significant negative economic impact on NCLGA communities and that those trends will last longer than people may expect.
Based on the six-week-old data, Oxford forecasted B.C. stands to lose 1.3 per cent of its gross domestic product in 2026, or $5.6 billion leading to a loss of 31,000 jobs.
The leading sectors in this loss, MacIsaac noted, are construction at $1.1 billion and 6,400 jobs; real estate and rental and leasing, $0.9 billion and 700 jobs; and professional, technical and scientific services, $0.5 billion and 3,000 jobs.
The "silver linings" in all of this, Mandewo and MacIsaac said, are that because of the diversity of B.C.'s economy, the province should fare better than other parts of Canada, such as Ontario and Quebec, and that it has led to a "love for Canada" movement that could ultimately reduce trade barriers between the provinces.
They also noted that stimulus spending could blunt some of the impact of sustained tariffs.
Oxford modelled the impact of stimulus spending including $9.25 billion from Ontario and B.C. for local government infrastructure, $12.6 billion from the federal government for infrastructure and 9.75 billion from the feds for social housing.
This, Oxford projected, could save B.C. 4,600 jobs and recover $6 billion in GDP over five years.
In summarizing the presentation, MacIsaac said there are three takeaways.
"BC will have challenges," he said. "BC's challenges will not be as dire or as significant as some other parts of the country. And third, we believe that there's an opportunity to soften the blow with the infusion of stimulus funding to offset some of the impacts."
Mandewo and MacIsaac said NCLGA and UBCM will be pushing the senior levels of government for stimulus spending over the next weeks and months.
Prior to the opening plenary session, the NCLGA conducted opening ceremonies, held its annual general meeting, acclaimed Smithers Mayor Gladys Atrill as its new president, and accepted nominations for three open director positions. Voting is ongoing.
Although not an official part of the conference, on Monday (May 12), delegates had an opportunity to either take a Prince Rupert trolley tour with the City or a harbour tour with the Prince Rupert Port Authority.
They also enjoyed a welcome reception Monday evening at the North Pacific Cannery in Port Edward.
NCLGA is a non-profit organization representing 42 local, regional and First Nations governments spanning from 100 Mile House in the south to the Yukon border in the north and from the Alberta border in the east to Haida Gwaii in the west.
The 2025 conference is being co-hosted by the North Coast Regional District, the City of Prince Rupert, and the District of Port Edward.
